No, Trump didn't cut the trade deficit in half
A better narrative compares the trade deficit to the 3 year average, or to the pre-election levels.
My friend posted on Facebook
The Global Trade Deficit was cut in half in one month.
That s**t is crazy.
Clearly, that has become a right-wing narrative. The White House is all in on it too
TRADE DEFICIT NARROWS: It was the largest monthly decline in the trade deficit on record.
CNBC: “We cut it in HALF!? … This really does underscore how the movement of goods and services has really changed due to a variety of tariff-related issues.”
Let’s look at the actual numbers.
For the past 3 years the trade deficit has been growing at 60-90 Billion a month.
The exceptional months are December, January, February, and March. These months represent the post-election fears and the Trump administration. What happened during these months is clear.
Trump scared people into buying more stuff ahead of the tariffs. You can see that here.
Retailers engaged in stock piling to get a competitive edge and limit their risk.
So when Routers says, “goods trade gap contracted 46.0% to $87.6 billion last month.” They don’t mean to say Trump did anything good. They mean the hysteria over tariffs is gone. Trump chickened out. Warehouses are full. And levels have returned to something more reasonable.
And that “more reasonable” isn’t something to hang your hat on. You can spin it a different way. Even with the additional Trump tariffs that remain and the removal of the di minimis exemption, the USA trade deficit grew 19% more in April than it did in October of 2024 (up from 73.73 B).